With the primary calendar quarter of 2021 coming to a detailed yesterday, many corporations’ accounting departments are scrambling to wrap up their quarterly financials. However we cannot have to attend till Tesla‘s (NASDAQ:TSLA) quarterly earnings launch to get some essential, recent perception on the corporate’s latest progress. The electrical-car maker experiences its automobile deliveries a number of days after every quarter ends — often no later than the third day following 1 / 4’s shut.

Forward of Tesla’s quarterly replace on automobile deliveries, this is an summary of what to anticipate from the report and from the corporate’s deliveries for the complete yr.

Four Tesla vehicles in front of mountains.

Picture supply: Tesla.

Deliveries may surge greater than 80% yr over yr

On common, analysts count on Tesla to ship about 162,000 autos within the first quarter of 2021. This might translate to spectacular 83% year-over-year development and would put trailing-12-month deliveries at about 573,000, up from roughly 393,000 within the year-ago trailing-12-month interval.

Notably, nevertheless, these deliveries could be down 10% sequentially from document This fall deliveries of about 181,000 autos.

Whereas a sequential lower between This fall and Q1 is seasonally regular for Tesla, analysts’ forecasts for a pullback doubtless displays anticipated provide shortages for automobile manufacturing in Q1 on account of constrained provide of semiconductors. The general auto business’s automobile manufacturing has reportedly been negatively impacted by this supply-chain situation.

Due to this potential provide scarcity wildcard, it’s extremely troublesome to gauge the place Tesla’s first-quarter deliveries will are available in. Traders ought to train warning when making predictions for the quarter.

Wanting forward

Whereas Tesla’s reported first-quarter deliveries will probably be essential, the large query on buyers’ minds relating to the automaker’s automobile deliveries will probably be extra ahead wanting than backward wanting. Going into 2021, Tesla supplied bold steerage for deliveries to extend greater than 50% this yr over 2020 ranges.

This might mark a big acceleration over 36% development in 2020. Can Tesla nonetheless pull this off? The corporate’s continued manufacturing ramp up of its new Mannequin 3 and the addition of latest Mannequin Y manufacturing strains at its factories around the globe are anticipated to be main catalysts for automobile deliveries this yr.

In fact, if Tesla experiences weaker-than-expected first-quarter deliveries, it may elevate some considerations from buyers in regards to the automaker’s potential to hit its full-year steerage for greater than 750,000 deliveries. Sadly, buyers doubtless will not get to see whether or not administration is reiterating its steerage till the corporate experiences its first-quarter monetary outcomes, which report is often launched in late April.

Traders ought to hold a watch out for an replace from Tesla on its first-quarter automobile deliveries. It’ll doubtless be launched on Friday or Saturday.

With shares of the expansion inventory down greater than 25% from highs earlier this yr, buyers will probably be watching Tesla’s automobile supply replace intently to see if it could present some upbeat information and doubtlessly assist the inventory’s latest downward pattern discover a ground.

This text represents the opinion of the author, who could disagree with the “official” suggestion place of a Motley Idiot premium advisory service. We’re motley! Questioning an investing thesis — even considered one of our personal — helps us all suppose critically about investing and make choices that assist us develop into smarter, happier, and richer.